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Reactions to, and challanges for weak US dollar

Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis take fright


By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, International Business Editor
Last Updated: 12:18am BST 20/09/2007

 
Saudi Arabia has refused to cut interest rates in lockstep with the US Federal Reserve for the first time, signalling that the oil-rich Gulf kingdom is preparing to break the dollar currency peg in a move that risks setting off a stampede out of the dollar across the Middle East.
Fears of dollar collapse as Saudis take fright
Ben Bernanke has placed the dollar in a dangerous situation, say analysts

"This is a very dangerous situation for the dollar," said Hans Redeker, currency chief at BNP Paribas.
"Saudi Arabia has $800bn (£400bn) in their future generation fund, and the entire region has $3,500bn under management. They face an inflationary threat and do not want to import an interest rate policy set for the recessionary conditions in the United States," he said.
The Saudi central bank said today that it would take "appropriate measures" to halt huge capital inflows into the country, but analysts say this policy is unsustainable and will inevitably lead to the collapse of the dollar peg.
As a close ally of the US, Riyadh has so far tried to stick to the peg, but the link is now destabilising its own economy.
The Fed's dramatic half point cut to 4.75pc yesterday has already caused a plunge in the world dollar index to a fifteen year low, touching with weakest level ever against the mighty euro at just under $1.40.
There is now a growing danger that global investors will start to shun the US bond markets. The latest US government data on foreign holdings released this week show a collapse in purchases of US bonds from $97bn to just $19bn in July, with outright net sales of US Treasuries.
The danger is that this could now accelerate as the yield gap between the United States and the rest of the world narrows rapidly, leaving America starved of foreign capital flows needed to cover its current account deficit -- expected to reach $850bn this year, or 6.5pc of GDP.
Mr Redeker said foreign investors have been gradually pulling out of the long-term US debt markets, leaving the dollar dependent on short-term funding. Foreigners have funded 25pc to 30pc of America's credit and short-term paper markets over the last two years.
"They were willing to provide the money when rates were paying nicely, but why bear the risk in these dramatically changed circumstances? We think that a fall in dollar to $1.50 against the euro is not out of the question at all by the first quarter of 2008," he said.
"This is nothing like the situation in 1998 when the crisis was in Asia, but the US was booming. This time the US itself is the problem," he said.
Mr Redeker said the biggest danger for the dollar is that falling US rates will at some point trigger a reversal yen "carry trade", causing massive flows from the US back to Japan.
Jim Rogers, the commodity king and former partner of George Soros, said the Federal Reserve was playing with fire by cutting rates so aggressively at a time when the dollar was already under pressure.
The risk is that flight from US bonds could push up the long-term yields that form the base price of credit for most mortgages, the driving the property market into even deeper crisis.
"If Ben Bernanke starts running those printing presses even faster than he's already doing, we are going to have a serious recession. The dollar's going to collapse, the bond market's going to collapse. There's going to be a lot of problems," he said.
The Federal Reserve, however, clearly calculates the risk of a sudden downturn is now so great that the it outweighs dangers of a dollar slide.
Former Fed chief Alan Greenspan said this week that house prices may fall by "double digits" as the subprime crisis bites harder, prompting households to cut back sharply on spending.
For Saudi Arabia, the dollar peg has clearly become a liability. Inflation has risen to 4pc and the M3 broad money supply is surging at 22pc.
The pressures are even worse in other parts of the Gulf. The United Arab Emirates now faces inflation of 9.3pc, a 20-year high. In Qatar it has reached 13pc.
Kuwait became the first of the oil sheikhdoms to break its dollar peg in May, a move that has begun to rein in rampant money supply growth.
 
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China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales


By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 8:39pm BST 10/08/2007

The Chinese government has begun a concerted campaign of economic threats against the United States, hinting that it may liquidate its vast holding of US treasuries if Washington imposes trade sanctions to force a yuan revaluation.
  • Blog - Dollar to collapse?
     
    Fistful of dollars - China threatens 'nuclear option' of dollar sales
    Fistful of dollars - China's trade surplus reached $26.9bn in June

    Two officials at leading Communist Party bodies have given interviews in recent days warning - for the first time - that Beijing may use its $1.33 trillion (£658bn) of foreign reserves as a political weapon to counter pressure from the US Congress.
    Shifts in Chinese policy are often announced through key think tanks and academies.
    Described as China's "nuclear option" in the state media, such action could trigger a dollar crash at a time when the US currency is already breaking down through historic support levels.
    It would also cause a spike in US bond yields, hammering the US housing market and perhaps tipping the economy into recession. It is estimated that China holds over $900bn in a mix of US bonds.
    Xia Bin, finance chief at the Development Research Centre (which has cabinet rank), kicked off what now appears to be government policy with a comment last week that Beijing's foreign reserves should be used as a "bargaining chip" in talks with the US.
    "Of course, China doesn't want any undesirable phenomenon in the global financial order," he added.
    He Fan, an official at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, went even further today, letting it be known that Beijing had the power to set off a dollar collapse if it choose to do so.
    "China has accumulated a large sum of US dollars. Such a big sum, of which a considerable portion is in US treasury bonds, contributes a great deal to maintaining the position of the dollar as a reserve currency. Russia, Switzerland, and several other countries have reduced the their dollar holdings.
    "China is unlikely to follow suit as long as the yuan's exchange rate is stable against the dollar. The Chinese central bank will be forced to sell dollars once the yuan appreciated dramatically, which might lead to a mass depreciation of the dollar," he told China Daily.
    The threats play into the presidential electoral campaign of Hillary Clinton, who has called for restrictive legislation to prevent America being "held hostage to economic decicions being made in Beijing, Shanghai, or Tokyo".
    She said foreign control over 44pc of the US national debt had left America acutely vulnerable.
    Simon Derrick, a currency strategist at the Bank of New York Mellon, said the comments were a message to the US Senate as Capitol Hill prepares legislation for the Autumn session.
    "The words are alarming and unambiguous. This carries a clear political threat and could have very serious consequences at a time when the credit markets are already afraid of contagion from the subprime troubles," he said.
    A bill drafted by a group of US senators, and backed by the Senate Finance Committee, calls for trade tariffs against Chinese goods as retaliation for alleged currency manipulation.
    The yuan has appreciated 9pc against the dollar over the last two years under a crawling peg but it has failed to halt the rise of China's trade surplus, which reached $26.9bn in June.
    Henry Paulson, the US Tresury Secretary, said any such sanctions would undermine American authority and "could trigger a global cycle of protectionist legislation".
    Mr Paulson is a China expert from his days as head of Goldman Sachs. He has opted for a softer form of diplomacy, but appeared to win few concession from Beijing on a unscheduled trip to China last week aimed at calming the waters.
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    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/19/cnspain119.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox

    Spain faces frightening parallels to Britain


    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    Last Updated: 12:51am BST 19/09/2007

     
    Spanish officials have furiously denied reports that the country’s property market is heading for a crash or that a clutch of banks may be in the same boat as Northern Rock.
  • More on the credit crisis
  • Interest rates special
    Miguel Angel Ordoñez, the Bank of Spain’s governor, told the Spanish parliament yesterday that the country’s financial system was “immensely solid” despite the dramatic fall in the share price of mid-sized banks and construction firms geared to the deflating property bubble.
    “The current turbulence has highlighted the downside risks to growth but Spanish institutions face this episode from strength. Exposure to [sub-prime debt] is insignificant: the problem is we don’t know where the losses are, or who owns what,” he said. “The biggest favour the banks can do is to come clean on losses.”
    The central bank also denied reports that its financial institutions had required “emergency liquidity” along the lines of Northern Rock, but the statement failed to end doubts since Spanish banks have been able to borrow unlimited sums cheaply from the European Central Bank’s window.
    David Taguas, the prime minister’s chief economic adviser, said: “To talk about severe adjustments or a meltdown in prices is ridiculous. That sort of crisis is unthinkable. We have…one of the most efficient financial systems in the world. That’s insurance in times of turbulence.”
    The reactions follow a scathing report on the Spanish banks by Citigroup that sent tremors through the Madrid bourse. The note downgraded Banco Popular, Banco Sabadell, Banesto and Bankinter, warning the credit crunch had changed the picture for Spanish lenders that rely on the wholesale capital markets. It was exactly this sort of funding that caused Northern Rock’s troubles. The Spanish banks’ shares have fallen almost 40pc since April.
    “Spain’s mid-cap banks have some of Europe’s lowest core capital ratios (6.12pc) and the highest loan-to-deposit ratios (182pc). The freeze in credit markets reverses all the prior positives for investing in these cap banks,” said Kato Mukuru, the note’s author.
    He added the debt-driven M&A deals that enriched these banks are likely to become rarer in the new climate, while a mismatch of maturities would eat into profit margins. The banks rely on three-month paper to raise funds, but their assets are on a 12-month cycle.
    Adding to the woes, the spreads on Spanish AA mortgage bonds have leapt from 21 to 100 basis points over Euribor.
    The banks are highly exposed to the Spanish housing market. After rising 270pc since 1995, house prices have begun to fall in parts of northern Spain, slipping 2.1pc in Barcelona and Madrid so far this year. Over 98pc of all mortgages are priced off floating Libor rates, causing mortgage payments to almost double in under two years. Construction has reached 18pc of GDP, more than Germany (15pc) at the height of the reunification boom.
    David Owen, an economist at Dresdner Kleinwort, said Spain was in danger of a serious crisis. “House prices may fall, but what is even worse is that the corporate sector’s deficit has grown so large that it needs to find financing equivalent to 10pc of GDP every quarter just to stand still,” he said.
    “In an environment of easy credit and low rates, these excesses are not an issue, but it can quickly unravel as the mood changes. The problem is that a country inside EMU can’t get itself out once it reaches tipping point: it can’t cut interest rates or let the currency fall.”
    While the extreme levels of household debt in Spain are similar to those in Britain, the abilities of the two countries to act in a crisis are quite different. Spain may face a replay of Britain’s ERM crisis in 1992, but this time without the safety valve of easy exit.
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    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2007/09/19/bcnboe218.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox

    BoE in dramatic U-turn on lending crisis


    By Philip Aldrick, Banking Correspondent
    Last Updated: 2:47pm BST 19/09/2007

     
    The Bank of England has caved into pressure from the Financial Services Authority, bankers and its political masters by flooding the capital markets with £10bn of three-month money and widening the asset classes it will accept as collateral against the loans.
  • King at the centre of a storm over crisis
  • BoE Governor threatened by Northern Rock debacle
  • Jeff Randall: 10 lessons from Northern Rock
    Financiers have been calling for the Bank to relieve pressure in the three month inter-bank lending market for weeks but, earlier this month, Governor Mervyn King expressly stated that the problems were not the Bank's concern, saying: "The source of these problems does not lie in a lack of central bank liquidity."
     
    In a humiliating climbdown, it said it is now acting "in order to alleviate the strains in the longer-maturity money markets". The measures taken are to "provide funds at a three-month maturity against a wider range of collateral, including mortgage collateral, than in the Bank's weekly open market operations".
    The decision to widen the asset class comes amid reports that the FSA has been urging the Bank to take just such action and pile the pressure on Mr King, who faces a grilling by the Treasury Select Committee tomorrow over his handling of the credit crisis.
    The Bank is believed to have been against the move, leading to tensions between the two regulators. The Chancellor is also thought to have urged the Bank to take action in the three-month market following the Treasury's intervention in the Northern Rock crisis.
    Financiers claim that, had the three month money been made available earlier, Northern Rock may not have resorted to the Bank's emergency facility that has panicked customers, irreparably tarnished its reputation and caused the share price to halve.
    Matthew Sharratt, an economist at Bank of America, said: "One can only say that it does represent something of a U-turn. It's likely that the pressure on money markets would have been considerably less had this policy been undertaken a couple of weeks ago."
  • Northern Rock bail-out may breach EU laws
  • Northern Rock: Queues go but mistrust stays
  • Simon Heffer: If we take away risk, then capitalism is finished
    Widening the asset class will allow banks to use assets such as mortgages as collateral to draw down on the £10bn facility. Financiers believe the move is important as it demonstrates confidence in the banks and their assets, which may help restore faith across the market. The move will also allows banks to refinance loans that might otherwise be tying up much-needed capital.
    The Bank said the first £10bn auction will be next week, "and three further auctions will be held at weekly intervals... the size of future auctions will be decided in due course". It will charge interest at 6.75pc on the loans.
    By widening the accepted collateral class, the Bank is following in the footsteps of the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. However, financiers said it may have been too little too late. The Fed decision to cut rates by half a percentage point yesterday has already relieved pressure on the three month inter-bank market.
    Inter-bank lending rates had already dropped this morning, from 6.14pc to 5.88pc in the overnight market and from 6.75pc to 6.55pc in the three month market. Because three month money is now cheaper in the inter bank market than the Bank's 6.75pc penal rate, financiers said the facility may not be used unless the "wider range of collateral" includes lower-quality mortgage assets.
    One banker said: "You can fund good quality paper at less than that at the moment, but this will have the effect of capping the three month lending rate at 6.75pc. This will only be attractive if the Bank accepts weaker assets as collateral or if they lower the rate."
    He added that the City was looking for more detail on exactly what quality of "mortgage collateral" will be accepted. The Bank will provide the information on Friday.

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